Upstart AI Price Prediction

The combination of a very high P/E ratio and modest EPS suggests that the current valuation embeds aggressive expectations despite limited demonstrated earnings power. With EPS at 0.26 and a P/E of 166.02, the stock is priced as a high-growth, high-quality compounder, but the fundamentals implied by the given data do not yet justify that premium. This creates downside risk if growth or profitability underwhelm.

• Valuation is stretched: at $43.16 and EPS of 0.26, the implied P/E of ~166x is extremely high versus broader market and most fintech peers, requiring strong and sustained earnings growth to be justified.
• Low current earnings base: EPS of 0.26 indicates that even small disappointments in revenue growth or margins can significantly impact valuation metrics and investor sentiment.
• Risk-reward skewed to the downside: without evidence here of accelerating revenue, expanding margins, or robust net income growth, the high multiple looks vulnerable to compression if macro or company-specific conditions deteriorate.

Technically, the stock is in a weak position, trading well below its 200-day moving average and showing a low RSI that signals persistent selling pressure. The modest 1.3% decline over the last month understates the broader downtrend implied by the large gap between the current price and the 200-day average. Overall, the setup points to a stock still in a corrective or distribution phase rather than a confirmed recovery.

• Below long-term trend: the current price of $43.16 is materially under the 200-day moving average of $55.05, indicating a sustained downtrend and longer-term technical weakness.
• RSI near oversold: an RSI of 34.37 is close to the oversold threshold (30), reflecting ongoing negative momentum and limited recent buying interest, though it could also precede short-term bounces.
• Recent performance soft: a 1.3% decline over the last month, combined with the large discount to the 200-day moving average, suggests the stock has not yet established a clear bottom or uptrend.

Taken together, Upstart’s current setup appears bearish: the stock trades well below its long-term moving average, momentum is weak, and the valuation multiple is very high relative to the earnings base. Alternative data show stability rather than clear acceleration, which is not enough to justify such a rich multiple in the face of technical and fundamental risks. Unless earnings growth or profitability inflects meaningfully higher, the risk of multiple compression and further downside remains elevated.

• High valuation with limited visible earnings strength and no clear growth inflection in the provided data creates substantial downside risk.
• Technical indicators (price below 200-day moving average and low RSI) confirm a weak trend, while alternative data are merely stable, supporting an overall bearish stance on the stock at current levels.