Etsy AI Price Prediction

Etsy’s valuation (PE ~32.5 on EPS of 1.48) implies the market still prices in meaningful growth despite recent share price weakness. Profitability exists but is not cheap on an absolute basis, especially given macro headwinds for discretionary e‑commerce. Without evidence of accelerating earnings or margin expansion in the data provided, the financial picture looks balanced rather than clearly attractive or distressed.

• Positive EPS of 1.48 and a PE of 32.53 indicate Etsy is profitable but trading at a growth‑style multiple that requires continued earnings expansion to be justified.
• The current valuation multiple is elevated relative to many mature retailers/platforms, suggesting limited margin of safety if growth slows or user engagement weakens.
• No explicit revenue or margin trend data is provided here, so while the company appears fundamentally sound, there is insufficient evidence in this snapshot to call the financial setup clearly bullish or clearly impaired.

The stock has sold off sharply, down 23% in the last month to $48.14, and now trades well below its 200‑day moving average of $58.14, reflecting a strong negative trend. However, the RSI at 29.30 is in oversold territory, which often precedes at least a technical bounce. Overall, the setup combines a bearish trend with potential for a short‑term mean‑reversion move, resulting in a neutral technical stance.

• Price at $48.14 versus a 200‑day moving average of $58.14 signals a firmly bearish intermediate‑term trend and that the stock is trading in a downtrend channel.
• A 23% decline over the last month indicates aggressive recent selling pressure, often driven by negative sentiment, earnings concerns, or macro factors.
• RSI at 29.30 is below the typical oversold threshold of 30, suggesting downside momentum may be stretched and raising the probability of a short‑term rebound even if the broader trend remains weak.

Etsy’s alternative data profile shows a large and stable user base: very high monthly web traffic and strong daily app downloads, but with flat month‑over‑month app growth. Hiring is ticking up modestly, and social media followings are large with slow but positive growth. These indicators suggest a mature platform with stable engagement rather than a rapidly accelerating growth story.

• Estimated 459.5 million monthly web visitors and 1.103 million daily app downloads underscore Etsy’s substantial scale and entrenched marketplace position, but app downloads are flat month over month (0.0% growth), implying no near‑term acceleration in new user acquisition.
• Job openings at 38, up 8.6% month over month, point to measured investment and potential selective expansion, but not an aggressive growth or turnaround hiring surge.
• Social media audiences are very large across platforms (multi‑million followers on Facebook and Instagram) with low single‑digit percentage growth over 90 days, signaling stable brand awareness and engagement but not a strong viral or breakout growth phase.

Etsy’s stock currently reflects a tension between negative price momentum and oversold technicals on one side, and a profitable, scaled platform with stable engagement on the other. The recent 23% price drop and position below the 200‑day moving average are clearly bearish signals, but the oversold RSI and robust alternative data footprint temper the downside narrative. Overall, the setup appears neutral: neither clearly compellingly bullish nor decisively bearish based on the information provided.

• Bearish technical trend and recent steep drawdown are offset by oversold conditions and an underlying business that remains profitable with strong traffic and app usage.
• Valuation still assumes growth (PE ~32.5), while alternative data show stability rather than acceleration, leaving the risk/reward balanced rather than strongly skewed in either direction.