HelloFresh SE AI Price Prediction

The stock is trading at €5.10, below its 200‑day moving average of €7.49, reflecting a clear longer‑term downtrend and weak momentum. However, an RSI of 25.01 places the stock in oversold territory, which can sometimes precede short‑term bounces or mean‑reversion rallies. The modest 5% decline over the last month suggests selling pressure has been steady but not capitulatory.

• Current price of €5.10 is significantly below the 200‑day moving average of €7.49, indicating a prevailing bearish long‑term trend.
• RSI at 25.01 is in oversold territory, which may set up conditions for a short‑term technical rebound if selling pressure eases.
• The 5.0% decline over the last month shows continued weakness, but not an extreme drawdown, consistent with a grinding downtrend rather than a sharp crash.

Alternative data present a mixed picture: digital engagement via app downloads is growing modestly, while web traffic and social metrics are largely flat to slightly positive. The small decline in job openings may indicate cost control or slower growth, which can be either efficiency‑driven or demand‑related. Overall, these signals suggest a stable but not strongly accelerating demand environment.

• Mobile app downloads at an estimated 106,000 per day, up 3.9% month over month, are a positive signal for user acquisition and engagement.
• Web traffic at 65,926 visitors per month appears modest and, without strong growth data, does not point to a major acceleration in top‑of‑funnel demand.
• Job openings at 285, down 6.3% month over month, and largely flat social media bases (with only low‑single‑digit growth on Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube) suggest a cautious operating stance and stable, not rapidly expanding, brand reach.

HelloFresh SE’s stock currently reflects a loss‑making business in a technical downtrend, but with oversold indicators that could support a short‑term bounce. Alternative data show modest growth in app downloads and generally stable brand engagement, which helps offset some of the negative implications of current unprofitability. Overall, the balance of weak fundamentals, bearish long‑term technicals, and mildly constructive alternative data supports a neutral stance at this time.

• Negative earnings and a price well below the 200‑day moving average weigh on the medium‑term outlook, keeping fundamental and trend risks elevated.
• Oversold RSI and steady to slightly improving alternative data (especially app downloads) provide some counterbalance, suggesting potential for tactical upside but not yet a clearly bullish setup.