Arlo Smart Home AI Price Prediction

Arlo is technically profitable with a small EPS of 0.03, but the extremely high PE ratio of 461.33 suggests that current earnings are very thin relative to the stock price and/or that the market is pricing in aggressive future growth. Without detailed income statement data, the limited profitability and stretched valuation point to a business that is still in an early or transition phase of monetization rather than a mature, cash-generative profile.

• Positive EPS of 0.03 indicates Arlo has crossed into profitability, but at a very modest level.
• A PE ratio of 461.33 implies either very low current earnings or very high growth expectations, leaving little margin for error if growth slows.
• Given the small earnings base, profitability ratios are likely fragile and sensitive to any revenue or cost volatility, making the financial profile more speculative than firmly established.

The stock is trading at $13.84, modestly down 1.6% over the last month and below its 200-day moving average of $15.03, which is a mildly negative intermediate trend signal. However, the RSI of 21.72 places the stock firmly in oversold territory, suggesting near-term downside may be limited and a technical rebound is possible.

• Price of $13.84 is about 7.9% below the 200-day moving average of $15.03, indicating the intermediate trend has weakened and is currently negative.
• RSI at 21.72 is well below the typical oversold threshold of 30, often associated with potential short-term mean-reversion or bounce opportunities.
• Only a 1.6% decline over the last month suggests the recent weakness is moderate rather than a sharp selloff, but the combination of being below the 200-day MA and oversold points to a technically pressured yet potentially near-term bottoming setup.

Alternative data for Arlo shows a mixed but generally stable operating backdrop. Web traffic and app downloads are high in absolute terms, with app downloads flat month over month, while job openings have increased meaningfully, hinting at ongoing investment and growth initiatives. Social media followership is largely stable with small declines on some platforms and modest growth on others, suggesting no major shift in brand engagement.

• Estimated 3.6M monthly website visitors and ~101,000 daily app downloads (flat month over month) indicate a large and steady user base, but not accelerating growth in engagement at the moment.
• Job openings at 18, up 38.5% month over month, point to increased hiring and potential expansion in product, engineering, or go-to-market functions, a mild positive for future growth capacity.
• Social media signals are mixed: slight follower declines on Twitter/X, Instagram, and Facebook, but growth on YouTube (+5.5%) and LinkedIn (+1.0%), collectively implying stable brand presence rather than a strong positive or negative inflection.

Arlo Smart Home presents a mixed picture: the company is marginally profitable but carries an extremely high valuation multiple, and the stock trades below its 200-day moving average while being technically oversold. Alternative data suggests a solid, stable user base and some hiring momentum, but not clear evidence of accelerating demand. Overall, the setup looks balanced between upside from potential growth execution and downside from valuation risk and modest current profitability.

• Fundamentals show small but positive earnings contrasted with a very stretched PE ratio, leaving the stock sensitive to any disappointment in growth or margins.
• Technicals are weak in the intermediate term (below 200-day MA) but strongly oversold on RSI, which could support a short-term bounce but does not yet confirm a sustained uptrend.
• Alternative data is broadly stable with some positive hiring signals, supporting a neutral stance rather than clearly bearish or bullish positioning at this time.