The Optimist Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Review
AFRM • NASDAQ
Unlock comprehensive alternative data signals to make better investment decisions

Track website visits, page views, unique visitors, and engagement metrics over time to gauge online interest and brand strength.

Monitor Twitter follower growth, engagement rates, and social media presence to understand brand reach and community sentiment.

Analyze TikTok follower trends and viral content performance to measure youth demographic appeal and cultural relevance.

Track Facebook page likes, comments, shares, and post engagement to assess community interaction and brand loyalty.

Monitor Instagram follower growth, engagement rates, and visual content performance across demographics.

Track YouTube channel growth, video views, and subscriber engagement to measure content marketing effectiveness.

Monitor LinkedIn company page followers and professional network growth to assess B2B brand strength and talent attraction.

Track open job positions and hiring trends as a leading indicator of company expansion, contraction, or strategic shifts.

Monitor employee headcount changes on LinkedIn to gauge organizational growth, restructuring, or cost-cutting measures.

Analyze sentiment scores from Reddit discussions to understand retail investor mood and potential price momentum.

Track daily news mentions across major publications to measure media attention, PR effectiveness, and market awareness.

View key financial metrics including Revenue, Net Income, EPS, Free Cash Flow, EBITDA, and Total Assets. Access 2-year quarterly charts for Revenue & Income and Free Cash Flow trends.

Analyze technical indicators including 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with price overlay and Relative Strength Index (RSI) charts.
You don't hold AFRM in your mock portfolio yet.
Affirm is currently profitable on an EPS basis with a relatively high PE ratio, suggesting the market is still pricing in strong future growth despite recent stock weakness. A PE of 61.49 on EPS of 0.81 implies that expectations remain elevated and leave limited room for execution missteps. Without detailed revenue and margin history, the core message is that valuation is growth‑dependent and somewhat stretched relative to recent price action.
The stock is in a pronounced short‑term downtrend, trading well below its 200‑day moving average and having fallen 33.4% over the last month. An RSI of 35.05 signals the shares are approaching oversold territory, but not yet at an extreme level that typically attracts strong mean‑reversion buying. Overall, the technical setup points to negative momentum with only tentative signs of potential stabilization.
Alternative data for Affirm is mixed: very strong overall digital reach and hiring growth contrast with a sharp decline in app downloads, a key user‑growth proxy. Web traffic remains high, and job postings up 50% month over month suggest management is investing for expansion, but the 28.5% drop in daily app downloads raises questions about near‑term demand momentum. Social media follower trends are modestly positive but not strong enough to offset the concerns around user acquisition softness.
Taken together, Affirm’s setup leans bearish in the near term: the stock is in a clear downtrend with negative price momentum, while alternative data show a notable slowdown in app downloads despite ongoing investment and hiring. The company’s positive EPS and growth‑style valuation suggest long‑term potential, but the high PE multiple leaves little margin for error if growth or credit metrics soften further. Until technicals stabilize and user‑growth indicators improve, the risk‑reward skews more to the downside than the upside.
Our AI Score rates companies on a scale from 0 to 10, based on alternative data points such as web traffic, app downloads, and job postings — combined with financial health indicators and technical signals.
The Optimist Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Review

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Key moves vs recent baseline (last day / last week)
Plain-English summary of the biggest drivers (informational)
Potential risk factors to review
Based on earnings timing, volatility, liquidity and crowd activity. Informational signals only — not investment advice.
Reassess your thesis if any of these occur: